The King Makes The Papers (Again)!

Unlike the last time, the king did not make another all-feature article about him - if interested, you can read that article here. But... he did get named by his college friend, Geoff, writer of this article, to be not only a math teacher but math genius hahaha! We had a good laugh this morning when the husband read the article to me in the midst of my third nap :) Now Google's got no excuse not to give him a phat expat package lol!

If you're into basketball and how the draft lottery is calculated (I assume most of my readers are not that into conditional probability), then all you're interested is what they said specifically about my husband? Well, this is it :D

Did you confirm this with a local math genius?

Yes. His name is Bruce Ryan, he went to Harvard and he teaches math at Memphis University School.

Cool. Are the MUS kids developing an interest in probabilities because of the lottery?

"Actually," said Ryan, "they're interested in probabilities because of poker."

But, if you're interested in the depth of the NBA draft lottery (yawn!), below is the entire article... :)

NBA draft lottery

With top pick and a brighter tomorrow at stake, Griz could really use good bounce

By Geoff Calkins
May 13, 2007

Andy Dolich, president of business operations for the Memphis Grizzlies, was stopped by a fan the other day.

"So," the fans said, "how does it feel to have the No. 1 pick in the draft?"

Dolich pondered this question for a long moment.

"Does he know something I don't know?" he thought.

Nah, couldn't be.

So he explained the NBA Draft Lottery. Or tried his best.

"With certainty, there are two things I cannot explain in an intelligent fashion," Dolich said. "They are the NBA lottery and the plot line to 'Lost.' "

You think he was kidding? Here's an excerpt from an actual an e-mail from a reader named Mark Wright.

"The math analysis looks at the entire draft with multiple variables, or as applied here, what is the Grizzlies one chance of landing in one of four spots," he wrote. "But my analysis is based upon only one variable, the first pick as an independent event with a 25-percent probability."

It went on from there.

Oh, and then Dolich weighed in with this bit of zen.

"It's good that it's so confusing and it's bad that it's so confusing," he said.

Got that, grasshopper?

If not, it's time you do. The most important moment in the history of the Memphis NBA franchise takes place in exactly nine days.

Over the course of those nine days, the CA will tell you everything you need to know about the process. A story a day. Nine stories in nine days. Today, we tackle the essentials of the lottery in the standard question and answer format. For example:

Is it really the most important moment in the history of the Memphis NBA franchise?

If you don't count the debut of Heisley's golden nuggets, yes.

Har. But why is it so important?

Because it would be embarrassing to have a base of 273 season-ticket holders. If the Grizzlies don't get the first or second pick in the draft, it's hard to imagine they'll have a lot more than that. People have lost hope. The ownership situation has chased a lot of fans away. The Grizzlies need the first or second pick to give the franchise a jolt.

Why the first or second pick?

Because this draft has two superstars, Greg Oden of Ohio State and Kevin Durant of Texas. The Grizzlies would prefer to have Oden -- every NBA team would -- but from a marketing perspective it doesn't matter which they get.

Did you ask Dolich if it mattered?

Yes.

What did he say?

"From my perspective, no, it doesn't matter. The debate over which player is better is already raging and it will continue to rage until they are voted into the Hall of Fame. The fuel of either one or two is jet-propelled."

And the fuel of either three or four?

"High test," he said.

The price of gas is really getting to him, isn't it?

Evidently, yes.

But what number will the Grizzlies pick?

Anywhere from first to fourth. The first three picks are chosen by the lottery. After that, the NBA slots in the remaining 11 lottery teams, from the worst record on up. As the team with the worst record in the league, the Grizzlies can't pick any lower than fourth.

So how does the lottery part work?

Like any other lottery, really. The NBA actually rents a lottery machine from a company that manufactures them. The machine spits out four numbered Ping-Pong balls, which is the winning number combination. The team that has the corresponding number combination gets the first pick.

How are the number combinations assigned to teams?

Randomly, by a computer. But the lottery team with the worst record (the Grizzlies) gets 250 of 1,000 possible number combinations. The lottery team with the best record (the Clippers) gets five of 1,000 possible number combinations.

So the Grizzlies' chances of winning the first pick are?

Twenty-five percent. Or, as Dolich said, "seventy-five percent that we won't."

Kill-joy.

"I'm just being realistic," he said.

But we had enough realism during the season. Besides, you said either of the first two picks would do the job. What are the chances that the Grizzlies get the second pick?

That depends on which team gets the first pick.

Huh?

The Celtics had the second-worst record in the league. If the Celtics get the first pick, their 199 number combinations are out of play. The Grizzlies would then have 250 chances out of 801 to get the second pick, or 31.21 percent. On the other extreme, the Clippers had the best record among lottery teams. If the Clippers get the first pick, their 5 number combinations are out of play. The Grizzlies would then have 250 chances out of 995 to get the second pick, or 25.22 percent.

Well, if that's true, how come the NBA says the Grizzlies have a 21.51 chance of getting the second pick?

Because that's accurate right now, before we know what team is going to get the first pick. The league figures this out using something called "conditional probabilities." The Grizzlies might end up having a 31.21 percent chance of getting the second pick if the Celtics get the first pick but, at this moment, considering everything that might happen -- including the Grizzlies getting the first pick and being ineligible to get the second -- their chances of getting the second pick are 21.51 percent.

Did you confirm this with a local math genius?

Yes. His name is Bruce Ryan, he went to Harvard and he teaches math at Memphis University School.

Cool. Are the MUS kids developing an interest in probabilities because of the lottery?

"Actually," said Ryan, "they're interested in probabilities because of poker."

OK, so we know the Grizzlies have a 25 percent chance of getting the first pick and a 21.51 percent chance of getting the second pick. How do you figure out what their chances are of getting either the first or second pick?

You add those two numbers together.

That seems too simple.

Doesn't it though? But it's true, the Grizzlies have a 46.51 percent chance of getting the first or second pick. Which means they'll probably get shafted, like the Trail Blazers last year.

The Trail Blazers got shafted?

They had the worst record in the league and got the fourth pick.

How often does that happen?

Way too often, as it turns out. In the 13 years since 1994, 15 teams have had the best chance to win the NBA lottery. (In both 2002 and 2003, two teams tied for the worst record in the league). Of those 15 teams, only two (Cleveland in 2003 and Orlando in 2004) ended up with the first pick in the draft. Five other teams (Dallas in 1994, the Clippers in 1995, Vancouver in 1999, Chicago in 2002 and Atlanta in 2005) ended up with the second pick in the draft.

Yikes. That's terrible. Are the Grizzlies doing anything to improve their chances?

Naturally. They're having a good-luck charm contest. They've given out nearly 50,000 Ping-Pong balls that double as antenna balls.

How come you don't see them on cars around town?

"It turns out most cars don't have antennas any more," Dolich said.

Ahhh, the best laid plans, and all that. So what else are they doing?

They're painting one of those vast cement balls on the plaza to look like a Ping-Pong ball.

Wow. A 10,000 pound Ping-Pong ball?

"You should see the paddle," Dolich said.

-- Geoff Calkins: 529-2362